Four nations vie for the title
The FIFA World Cup 2026 has reached its semi-final stage, with France, Spain, Argentina, and England remaining in contention. This marks the first time since 1990 that all four semi-finalists are former world champions. It is also the first occasion since FIFA introduced its world rankings in 1992 that the top four-ranked teams have all advanced to the last four of the tournament.
The semi-final fixtures are set to take place in the coming days. Spain will face France in Arlington, Texas, on July 15. The following day, July 16, defending champions Argentina will play England in Atlanta. The third-place playoff is scheduled for July 19 in Miami, with the final to be held at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on July 20.
Market predictions favour France
Betting markets indicate a strong preference for France to win the tournament. Across two major prediction platforms, approximately 39% of bets have supported Didier Deschamps’ side to lift the trophy. England are considered the second favourites, attracting around 22% of predictions, closely followed by Spain with approximately 21%. Despite being the reigning champions and featuring Lionel Messi, Argentina are the least favoured among the remaining teams, with about 18% of predictions backing them to retain their title.
For the semi-final matches, one platform suggests France has a 59% probability of reaching the final against Spain’s 41%. The other semi-final between England and Argentina is seen as a closer contest, with England holding a narrow edge at a 54% chance of progressing compared to Argentina’s 46%. These trends suggest a potential France versus England final, which is considered the most likely outcome by one platform, with an estimated 35% probability.
Player performances in focus
The race for the Golden Boot remains tight, with Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi currently tied at the top of the scoring charts, each with eight goals. Harry Kane is also in contention with six goals. Betting markets heavily favour Mbappe to finish as the tournament’s leading scorer, with over 55 million reportedly wagered on this market on one platform and another 16 million on another. Mbappe commands 56% of predictions on one platform and 61% on another, while Messi follows with 34% and 31% respectively. Kane is a distant third, receiving 5% of predictions on one platform and 4% on another.
For the Golden Ball award, given to the tournament’s best player, Mbappe again leads the betting with 56% on one platform and 61% on another, with Messi as his closest challenger at 34% and 31%. England’s Jude Bellingham is also a strong contender, with 18% on both platforms. In the Best Young Player category, Spain’s Lamine Yamal is the overwhelming favourite, enjoying 42% support on one platform and 46% on another. France goalkeeper Mike Maignan leads the betting for the Golden Glove with approximately 37-38% support across both platforms, ahead of Spain’s Unai Simon.
Team perspectives on upcoming matches
Journalists and fans from the semi-finalist nations have shared their expectations for the upcoming matches. A Spanish journalist described Spain as the best team, France as having the best player and most formidable attack, Argentina as having the best idea, and England as possessing two world-class players in form. He noted that if Spain can control possession against France and be more efficient, they have a good chance of reaching the final, especially if Lamine Yamal performs well.
An English football writer believes France will win the trophy, citing their attacking prowess with players like Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise, and Desire Doue. He anticipates an England versus France final, with Didier Deschamps potentially concluding his tenure with a World Cup victory. A French journalist expressed confidence in the France team, noting a lack of controversy compared to previous major tournaments. Bastille Day celebrations in some French cities have even been adjusted to accommodate the semi-final match.
An Argentine journalist views France as the top team to win the title, highlighting their offensive strength and improved defensive play as the tournament has progressed. He hopes Argentina can win, acknowledging their heart, but sees France as a step above the rest in terms of football. Fans from these nations also expressed a mix of confidence and caution, with some Spanish fans believing they can beat France, and some English fans hoping for a victory against Argentina, while others acknowledge the strength of France. One Argentine fan believes their team can win on penalties against England but might lose to France in the final.
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Source: bbc.com
Arjun Sharma
Sports Reporter